Should We Be Worried? After All, They Are Just Numbers.

Updated: Jun 29

Unemployment by county





Long story short - like real short:


Let's consider all that's been going on, (here is a short list):

1-The COVID-19 pandemic;

2-Decrees in global transportation;

3-Quarantine;

4- Stimulus and Unemployment Checks;

5- Stock markets hitting an all-time high; and

6- Government spending increasing, '

Does it make you wonder if we are seeing the actual numbers, especially with the government injecting more money into the market? After all, they are saying it's nothing to worry about - they are just numbers, right?




Before we see the rest, Just check out our local market - Memphis TN


Update 6/26/2020 bankruptcies

we talked in the article about bankruptcies increase as the next stage in the economic crises, well check this out

Bloomberg reported this week that thirteen US companies (in the 50-million-plus size) filed for bankruptcy last week.


That brought the total for the big boys and girls this year to 117, which matches the record peak for the first half of a year set in 2009.



(the full story: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4356008-u-s-bankruptcies-busting-out-to-match-2009-peak-mean-trouble-for-stock-market?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=market-corrects-as-covid-cases-surge&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-5)

Update 6/18/2020, Memphis TN case study:

Right now there is more than 9,000 eviction cases pending in Memphis TN alone.

according to https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/memphiscitytennessee/HSD410218#HSD410218 there is 250,812 households in Memphis. that means that as of today 3.5% of them are facing evictions. with Memphis having 14.5% unemployment rate (April figure). its just a meter of time to see the housing market crises. as its still not reflecting in the day to day life.


Update 6/19/2020

Real weekly earnings up 7.4 percent for year ending May 2020, reflecting loss of lower-paying jobs (source - U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS )

if we factoring that - The average income of a Memphis resident is $21,909 a year. The US average is $28,555 a year.( source- bestplaces .) we can say with high confidence that the job loss in Memphis might be higher than the rest of the country.


Current COVID-19 numbers:





So far the numbers of the pandemic are easy to understand. Now let us see the economic numbers that the news is not mentioning.

The real story is not the unemployment rate that can be manipulated by the method of measurement. It is the employment rate percent (%) of the population:

United States Employment Rate 1948-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Historical


As you can see, if employment rate is at 52% you should expect the unemployment to be at 48% but in statistics you can always define how you measure. This is why I prefer to look at employment rate rather than unemployment.

United States GDP Annual Growth Rate 1948-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast

The United States is the world’s largest economy. Yet, in the last two decades, like in the case of many other developed nations, its growth rates have been decreasing. In the ’50s and 60’s the average growth rate was above 4 percent, and in the 70’s and 80’s it dropped to around 3 percent. In the last ten years, the average rate has been below 2 percent and since the second quarter of 2000, it has never reached the 5 percent level.

But look at what happened in 2009. The GDP decreased by 4%, only 4%, but we all remember how this 4% changed our lives. The numbers for 2020 are yet to be final, but I think it will be at least 4%


The United States Personal Savings Rate1959-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Historical

What is the saving index telling us? It is telling us that the economy will shrink. Why? Because of the expenses of one person it income of another and tax. Lower spending = Lower income = decrease in the economy. The economy is all about money changing hands. The more time it happens, that is your RPM, the amount is your fuel and your car movement is the economic growth.


The next one is just for fun, good luck Hertz.

The United States Total Vehicle Sales 1993-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar



The United States Bankruptcies 1980-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart


This is what major crises look like. This is what crashing looks like. It is not about the stock market . It is not about prices. It is about people who are unable to pay a debt. Bankruptcies will cause a chain reaction, leading to a major problem and will affect our stability.


Usually, at the closing of an economic brief, there is a suggestion of what we need to do next to avoid what's coming. I hope I am wrong because the only thing because all we have left is hope





Don't forget to share and like, we need hope - now more than ever.

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